The "Trend Simulation" Paradox: Can You Market Music Without Losing Your Soul?

Let’s be honest: the "build it and they will come" philosophy died a long time ago, and it was possibly a false bill of goods to begin with. As long as there has been recorded music, there have been gatekeepers - record labels, radio stations, promoters, etc. Today, roughly 100,000 tracks are uploaded to streaming services every day. If you aren't marketing, you’re essentially whispering into a hurricane.

But as someone who has spent years in the trenches—as a frontman and songwriter, a sideman, a studio musician, and a witness to the "almost-famous" life—I’ve seen how the sausage gets made. I’ve never cracked the Hot 100, but I know that "overnight success" usually takes about ten years and a very specific budget.

Lately, the industry has been buzzing about Chaotic Good Projects and their work with the band Geese. They use something called "trend simulation." It’s brilliant, it’s effective, and it’s enough to make any artist with a creative heart feel a little bit greasy. Everyone's favorite passive-aggressive internet words - "psyop" and "industry plant" - have been invoked. With that said, let's put down the pitchforks and torches for a moment and consider what's actually happening here.

Wait, what's Trend Simulation?

The idea is simple but surgical: instead of waiting for a trend to happen, you manufacture the appearance of one. Chaotic Good Projects seeds the conversation, creates the memes, and simulates the "viral moment" across networks of accounts until the algorithm believes it’s real. Once the algorithm believes it, the public follows.  

It’s marketing science at its most potent. But for those of us who still believe music should be "pure," it begs the question: Is there such a thing as ethical marketing?

The Middle Ground (Yes, It Exists)

I like to think of marketing not as "tricking people," but as bridge building. Whether you’re a small business owner or an indie songwriter, you’re solving a problem or filling a void. The approach to this is simple: provide the goods, tell the truth, but don’t be afraid to point a spotlight at the stage.

Here is how the Chaotic Good Projects strategy actually applies to the rest of us:

• Context Over Hype: Chaotic Good didn't just spam; they created a world for Geese to live in. For a small business, this means stop selling features and start selling a narrative. Why does this exist? Who is it for?

• The Algorithm is a Tool, Not a God: You can use marketing science—SEO, targeted ads, data analytics—to find your audience without becoming a parody of yourself. You’re just helping the right people find the right thing.

• The "Sideman" Logic: In the studio, my job was to make the song better without overplaying. Marketing should do the same. It should amplify the art, not replace it.

Can These Things Coexist?

I think so. The biggest consideration here is that the product at the end of the funnel must be worth the journey. If you simulate a trend for a bad product (whether that's a record, a vacation package, or a heating and cooling unit), you’re not doing yourself or your audience any favors - in fact, you may be setting fire to the bridge before it's even built. If you use those same mechanics to get a genuinely great record (or product or service) to people who will love it, you’re a realist.

We live in an era where we have to be our own publicists, but we don’t have to be our own villains. Organic discovery, whether it's music or any product or service, is very likely a myth, but that's a much bigger topic for another time. You can understand the science of the "trend" while still being the person who just wants to play a solid set and go home.

A Note from the Trenches: I may not have a Grammy on my mantle, but I’ve been around long enough to know that the most sustainable "trend" is actually just being good at what you do. Marketing just makes sure you don't do it in an empty room.